Weekend projections: Avatar holds well for easy win, while six other movies top $10 million

December 28, 2025

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Avatar: Fire and Ash stands tall again this weekend, dropping just 28% from its first weekend, to post $64 million, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning projection. It will end the weekend with roughly $218 million at the domestic box office, and with another $542.7 million internationally, has amassed $760.4 million globally to date. With six other movies earning more than $10 million this weekend, this a strong weekend for the industry.

Here are the official studio projections for the three- and four-day weekends (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far). I’ve highlighted the figures pertinent to current markets on Polymarket, for your convenience—Polymarket is using a mixture of three-day, four-day, and, in the case of Marty Supreme, five-day weekend figures to determine results. We don’t have a five-day figure for Marty Supreme, but, for the record, it passed Polymarket’s top-end tier in just four days.



The Avatar franchise has now collectively taken in more than $6 billion globally, and Fire and Ash is having a better second weekend than Way of Water, signaling good word of mouth (although the exact timing of Christmas Day has also played a part). Click here for our full comparison of the three films.

Overseas holds have been notably strong, with the second weekend dropping a modest 25% overall and just 15% excluding China. Several major markets posted weekend-over-weekend gains, including Korea, Germany and France, while key territories such as Mexico, Italy, Spain, Australia, Brazil, the U.K. and Japan recorded relatively mild declines, indicating solid word-of-mouth and staying power. In China, the picture has already become the No. 2 MPA release of 2025 with roughly $99.6 million, trailing only Zootopia 2.

France is currently the top international market outside China, with Fire and Ash grossing an estimated $54.4 million, followed by Germany at $43.1 million and Korea at $32.1 million. The U.K. has delivered $27.7 million, while Mexico stands at $22.3 million. ​Among other key territories, India has contributed $18.8 million, narrowly ahead of Spain at $18.4 million, Italy at $17.7 million and Australia at $17.6 million. In emerging markets, Indonesia has generated $12.5 million and Brazil $10.6 million.

The other standout movie this Holiday weekend is Marty Supreme, which is posting $17.5 million or so this three-day weekend, and will have over $28 million in the bank by the close of the day on Sunday. That puts it safely ahead of Anaconda, which is having a decent debut itself, with $23.7 million since opening on Christmas Day.

Song Sung Blue looks a little weaker on paper, with $7.6 million over the three-day weekend and a $12-million four-day weekend. It is clearly a crowd-pleaser though, with an A CinemaScore, and it appeals to an older demographic, which should lead to a strong run into the New Year.

Overall, things look good at the box office this weekend. Having such a diverse slate of films to choose from makes it feel like the good old days again, and we’ll beat 2024’s comparable weekend by a satisfying 8%. This is a great example of what can be achieved when the studios put an effort into releasing films for theaters. It’s the rest of the year we still have to worry about…

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,